009
FXUS64 KSJT 292040
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
340 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH.
- COOLER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY IN THE
MID 80S TO MID 90S, ELSEWHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AS OF 2 PM IS SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AS SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING, AND EVENTUALLY MAKING A RUN FOR THE
BIG COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
ACROSS THE THE BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. IN ADDITION, THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND ALTHOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS OF STRONGER WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ON SATURDAY, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE BIG COUNTRY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE COVERAGE
TOMORROW, SO GOING WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE. AGAIN,
THE MAIN THREAT FOR TOMORROW WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S TONIGHT, WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
RANGING FROM THE 80S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, TO THE LOW TO MID
90S FARTHER SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES (80%) AND HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IN
FACT, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED OUR AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK (15-40% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING. OUR MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SETUPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PANHANDLE AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. A STALLED, OR SLOW MOVING, FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS
ABOVE 1" SEEM LIKELY (PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS 80% CHANCE)
ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE 2-3" RANGE
SEEM POSSIBLE AS WELL. THIS WILL POSE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL ON PRIOR DAYS. IF THIS
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA (I-10 CORRIDOR) AS DEPICTED, THEN WE WILL SEE THESE CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL THEN BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BOUNDARY LINGERS.
OTHERWISE, TUESDAY ONWARD APPEARS TO BE DRIER WITH SOME LOW
CHANCES (20-30%) FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL STILL
REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT KABI AFTER 21Z THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WILL INCLUDE PROB30
GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY
AFFECT KABI TOWARDS DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER, SO WILL
NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH
TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE SOME
STRATUS DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 72 88 70 83 / 20 60 80 90
SAN ANGELO 72 94 70 84 / 30 60 60 80
JUNCTION 71 95 70 87 / 30 60 40 80
BROWNWOOD 71 88 69 82 / 20 60 70 90
SWEETWATER 71 90 70 84 / 20 70 80 80
OZONA 72 96 71 87 / 20 40 40 80
BRADY 71 93 71 82 / 20 60 50 90
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...24
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