657
FXUS64 KSJT 300557
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1257 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-80% CHANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DRIFTED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND AS OF 2 PM IS SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DIE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AS SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING, AND EVENTUALLY MAKING A RUN FOR THE
BIG COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
ACROSS THE THE BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. IN ADDITION, THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND ALTHOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS OF STRONGER WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ON SATURDAY, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE BIG COUNTRY SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE COVERAGE
TOMORROW, SO GOING WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE. AGAIN,
THE MAIN THREAT FOR TOMORROW WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AND A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S TONIGHT, WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
RANGING FROM THE 80S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY, TO THE LOW TO MID
90S FARTHER SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES (80%) AND HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IN
FACT, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED OUR AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK (15-40% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING. OUR MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SETUPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PANHANDLE AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. A STALLED, OR SLOW MOVING, FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS
ABOVE 1" SEEM LIKELY (PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS 80% CHANCE)
ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE 2-3" RANGE
SEEM POSSIBLE AS WELL. THIS WILL POSE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL ON PRIOR DAYS. IF THIS
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA (I-10 CORRIDOR) AS DEPICTED, THEN WE WILL SEE THESE CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL THEN BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BOUNDARY LINGERS.
OTHERWISE, TUESDAY ONWARD APPEARS TO BE DRIER WITH SOME LOW
CHANCES (20-30%) FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL STILL
REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS MORNING, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND DIMINISHED VISIBILITIES. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING,
THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE THEREAFTER. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE TODAY AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 92 71 85 69 / 60 80 80 30
SAN ANGELO 96 69 85 67 / 50 60 80 50
JUNCTION 97 71 91 69 / 40 30 80 70
BROWNWOOD 92 71 85 68 / 50 60 90 40
SWEETWATER 94 70 85 68 / 70 70 80 30
OZONA 96 70 88 69 / 30 30 80 70
BRADY 93 71 84 69 / 50 50 90 50
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...TP
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