777
FXUS64 KSJT 300640
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
140 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-80% CHANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING, HAS STARTED
TO PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY
AROUND 3AM THIS MORNING, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AND DISSIPATING BY MID-MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA
WHICH CAN LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION, THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S, WITH THE COOLEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2025
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES (80%) AND HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. IN
FACT, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED OUR AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK (15-40% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING. OUR MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SETUPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE PANHANDLE AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA. A STALLED, OR SLOW MOVING, FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS
ABOVE 1" SEEM LIKELY (PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS 80% CHANCE)
ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE 2-3" RANGE
SEEM POSSIBLE AS WELL. THIS WILL POSE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL ON PRIOR DAYS. IF THIS
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA (I-10 CORRIDOR) AS DEPICTED, THEN WE WILL SEE THESE CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE RAIN WILL THEN BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE THE BOUNDARY LINGERS.
OTHERWISE, TUESDAY ONWARD APPEARS TO BE DRIER WITH SOME LOW
CHANCES (20-30%) FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL STILL
REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS MORNING, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LOWER CEILINGS AND DIMINISHED VISIBILITIES. MVFR TO
POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING,
THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE THEREAFTER. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE TODAY AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 92 71 85 69 / 60 80 80 30
SAN ANGELO 96 69 85 67 / 50 60 80 50
JUNCTION 97 71 91 69 / 40 30 80 70
BROWNWOOD 92 71 85 68 / 50 60 90 40
SWEETWATER 94 70 85 68 / 70 70 80 30
OZONA 96 70 88 69 / 30 30 80 70
BRADY 93 71 84 69 / 50 50 90 50
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...TP
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