798
FXUS64 KSJT 301735
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY, WITH THE
FOCUS SHIFTING SOUTH TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND NW HILL COUNTRY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS EVENING, HAS STARTED
TO PROGRESS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE BIG COUNTRY
AROUND 3AM THIS MORNING, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AND DISSIPATING BY MID-MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING MORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA
WHICH CAN LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION, THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S, WITH THE COOLEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WARNING AREA. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR, AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ALONG I-10 AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, GFS PRECIPITAL
WATER VALUES ARE STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE ALONG I-10 AND EASTWARD
TO BRADY AND SABA, SO THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE TROPICAL-LIKE
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE AS MOIST, SO HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL IS MUCH LOWER.
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THURSDAY AS FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, WE
EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AROUND 22Z. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT TIMES ALONG
WITH ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS KABI AND KSJT BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 71 85 68 88 / 70 70 30 20
SAN ANGELO 69 85 68 87 / 50 70 60 40
JUNCTION 69 90 68 86 / 30 70 80 70
BROWNWOOD 70 85 68 86 / 60 80 50 30
SWEETWATER 70 85 68 89 / 80 60 20 20
OZONA 70 87 68 86 / 40 70 70 60
BRADY 70 84 68 84 / 40 70 60 50
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...41
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