049
FXUS64 KSJT 301941
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
241 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
- POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS (2 PM CDT) ARE SHOWING SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS NEAR SAN
SABA, JUNCTION, AND MASON. THE MAJORITY OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING
THIS ACTIVITY EXPANDING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING
HOURS. EACH INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA (SAN SABA ETC.) AS A RESULT,
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP.
LATER ON THIS EVENING, THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS (BIG COUNTRY
INCLUDED) AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN CORES. THIS
WILL POSE A RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS ALL 24 COUNTIES WE SERVE IN
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS.
IT REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IF THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH OF I-10, OR IF IT MAY STALL ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
AND I-10 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW, MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUING SOUTH OF I-10. THIS HAS SIGNICANT INFLUENCE OVER THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF THE FRONT STALLS, EVEN
HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE FAVORED. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE
RAIN CHANCES MAY ALSO LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MORE
DETAILS ON MONDAY'S POTENTIAL ARE INCLUDED IN THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WARNING AREA. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR, AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ALONG I-10 AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, GFS PRECIPITAL
WATER VALUES ARE STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE ALONG I-10 AND EASTWARD
TO BRADY AND SABA, SO THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE TROPICAL-LIKE
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MONDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE AS MOIST, SO HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL IS MUCH LOWER.
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THURSDAY AS FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THEN, WE
EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AROUND 22Z. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AT TIMES ALONG
WITH ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS KABI AND KSJT BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 71 85 68 88 / 70 70 30 20
SAN ANGELO 69 85 68 87 / 50 70 60 40
JUNCTION 69 90 68 86 / 30 70 80 70
BROWNWOOD 70 85 68 86 / 60 80 50 30
SWEETWATER 70 85 68 89 / 80 60 20 20
OZONA 70 87 68 86 / 40 70 70 60
BRADY 70 84 68 84 / 40 70 60 50
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-
COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-
MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-
STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...41
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