798
FXUS64 KSJT 310547
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1247 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
- POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS (2 PM CDT) ARE SHOWING SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS NEAR SAN
SABA, JUNCTION, AND MASON. THE MAJORITY OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING
THIS ACTIVITY EXPANDING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING
HOURS. EACH INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA (SAN SABA ETC.) AS A RESULT,
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP.
LATER ON THIS EVENING, THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS (BIG COUNTRY
INCLUDED) AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN CORES. THIS
WILL POSE A RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS ALL 24 COUNTIES WE SERVE IN
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS.
IT REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IF THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH OF I-10, OR IF IT MAY STALL ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
AND I-10 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW, MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUING SOUTH OF I-10. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE OVER THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF THE FRONT STALLS,
EVEN HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE FAVORED. IN THIS SCENARIO,
THE RAIN CHANCES MAY ALSO LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MORE DETAILS ON MONDAY'S POTENTIAL ARE INCLUDED IN THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
EVEN WITH A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES, LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY AND WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THAT FALLS IN THE SHORT TERM, THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEED TO BE EXTENDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A RESULT. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME DRIER AIR ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TX DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A RESULT. SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY BUT SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HINT
AT SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING RAIN CHANCES UNTIL WED
NIGHT WHEN THERE IS AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A RESULT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS MOST TERMINALS
THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KABI WHO COULD JUST SEE SOME
LOWER CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY, AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE
SYSTEMS WHICH COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. UTILIZED PROB30 AND TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAF PACKAGE TO
SHOW FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. A BRIEF REPRIEVE IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIKELY VFR CEILINGS,PRIOR
TO THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN BRING BACK
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AGAIN TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 71 86 70 88 / 60 70 30 20
SAN ANGELO 69 86 68 85 / 70 80 50 30
JUNCTION 69 88 67 85 / 40 80 70 70
BROWNWOOD 70 84 68 85 / 60 80 40 40
SWEETWATER 70 87 69 89 / 60 70 20 20
OZONA 70 86 68 85 / 70 80 60 60
BRADY 70 83 68 83 / 40 80 60 50
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-
COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-
MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-
STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...TP
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