894
FXUS64 KSJT 310557
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1257 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- MEDIUM CHANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
HILL COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS (2 PM CDT) ARE SHOWING SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS NEAR SAN
SABA, JUNCTION, AND MASON. THE MAJORITY OF THE CAMS ARE SHOWING
THIS ACTIVITY EXPANDING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING
HOURS. EACH INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA (SAN SABA ETC.) AS A RESULT,
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP.
LATER ON THIS EVENING, THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS (BIG COUNTRY
INCLUDED) AS A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAIN CORES. THIS
WILL POSE A RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS ALL 24 COUNTIES WE SERVE IN
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS.
IT REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN IF THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH OF I-10, OR IF IT MAY STALL ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
AND I-10 CORRIDOR. FOR NOW, MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUING SOUTH OF I-10. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE OVER THE
EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS IN THESE LOCATIONS. IF THE FRONT STALLS,
EVEN HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE FAVORED. IN THIS SCENARIO,
THE RAIN CHANCES MAY ALSO LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
MORE DETAILS ON MONDAY'S POTENTIAL ARE INCLUDED IN THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST
TWO DAYS WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A
DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAUSE RAIN CHANCES
TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON, THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE
HILL COUNTRY (40-50%) WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCES FOR THE CONCHO VALLEY
(20-30%) AND THE BIG COUNTRY (<20%). UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ENHANCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE
MORNING. DESI PROBABILITIES SHOW MEDIUM CHANCES OF 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN THIS AREA DURING THE DAY, SO THE FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
MONDAY. OTHERWISE, GIVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN,
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD STAY IN THE MID 80S, EXCEPT FOR THE BIG
COUNTRY WHICH WILL HAVE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER AND COULD REACH INTO
THE LOW 90S.
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, MODELS SHOW
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. ANOTHER SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DROP INTO TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY. HERE, GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE AS TO WHAT COULD RESULT BASED ON
VARYING FACTORS, INCLUDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO. THE GFS
SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF YET-TO-DEVELOP TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING IN
FROM THE EAST PACIFIC AND INTRODUCING RAIN CHANCES INTO WEST TEXAS.
THE EUROPEAN SHOWS THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD AWAY
FROM NORTH AMERICA, RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW, RAIN CHANCES WERE KEPT AROUND 20% FOR SATURDAY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS MOST TERMINALS
THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KABI WHO COULD JUST SEE SOME
LOWER CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY, AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE
SYSTEMS WHICH COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. UTILIZED PROB30 AND TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAF PACKAGE TO
SHOW FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. A BRIEF REPRIEVE IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIKELY VFR CEILINGS,PRIOR
TO THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN BRING BACK
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AGAIN TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 86 70 88 66 / 70 30 20 0
SAN ANGELO 86 68 85 64 / 80 50 30 10
JUNCTION 88 67 85 64 / 80 70 70 10
BROWNWOOD 84 68 85 64 / 80 40 40 10
SWEETWATER 87 69 89 66 / 50 20 20 0
OZONA 86 68 85 63 / 80 70 60 10
BRADY 83 68 83 65 / 80 60 50 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-
CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-
MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-
STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...TP
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