743
FXUS64 KSJT 310624
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
124 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- MEDIUM CHANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
HILL COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG THE STALLED FROM
CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU, DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THESE LINGERING STORMS WILL
BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING, LIGHTNING, AND BREEZY WINDS. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT, AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE
STORMS.
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, WHEREAS THE CAMS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING SLIGHTLY
EARLIER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING AND LESS COVERAGE MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. EITHER WAY, THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AND MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD DEPENDING ON HOW THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PAN OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE, LOW 80S TO LOW 90S, GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER COVERAGE
TODAY. HOWEVER, IF CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CLOUDY AND THERE IS LESS
SHOWER COVERAGE, TEMPERATURES COULD END UP WARMER TODAY. LOWS
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST
TWO DAYS WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A
DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAUSE RAIN CHANCES
TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON, THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE
HILL COUNTRY (40-50%) WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCES FOR THE CONCHO VALLEY
(20-30%) AND THE BIG COUNTRY (<20%). UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ENHANCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE
MORNING. DESI PROBABILITIES SHOW MEDIUM CHANCES OF 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN THIS AREA DURING THE DAY, SO THE FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
MONDAY. OTHERWISE, GIVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN,
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD STAY IN THE MID 80S, EXCEPT FOR THE BIG
COUNTRY WHICH WILL HAVE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER AND COULD REACH INTO
THE LOW 90S.
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, MODELS SHOW
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. ANOTHER SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DROP INTO TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY. HERE, GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE AS TO WHAT COULD RESULT BASED ON
VARYING FACTORS, INCLUDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO. THE GFS
SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF YET-TO-DEVELOP TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING IN
FROM THE EAST PACIFIC AND INTRODUCING RAIN CHANCES INTO WEST TEXAS.
THE EUROPEAN SHOWS THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD AWAY
FROM NORTH AMERICA, RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW, RAIN CHANCES WERE KEPT AROUND 20% FOR SATURDAY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ACROSS MOST TERMINALS
THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KABI WHO COULD JUST SEE SOME
LOWER CEILINGS DUE TO STRATUS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY, AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THESE
SYSTEMS WHICH COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS. UTILIZED PROB30 AND TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAF PACKAGE TO
SHOW FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY. A BRIEF REPRIEVE IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIKELY VFR CEILINGS,PRIOR
TO THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN BRING BACK
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AGAIN TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 86 70 88 66 / 70 30 20 0
SAN ANGELO 86 68 85 64 / 80 50 30 10
JUNCTION 88 67 85 64 / 80 70 70 10
BROWNWOOD 84 68 85 64 / 80 40 40 10
SWEETWATER 87 69 89 66 / 50 20 20 0
OZONA 86 68 85 63 / 80 70 60 10
BRADY 83 68 83 65 / 80 60 50 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-
CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-
MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-
STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...TP
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