893
FXUS64 KSJT 312006
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
306 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE CONCHO VALLEY, THE HEARTLAND,
THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE
BIG COUNTRY THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.
- POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
- MARGINAL RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
...SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE BIG COUNTRY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY AND
THE HEARTLAND. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP, THE AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
EVERYWHERE BUT THE BIG COUNTRY AS THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN GENERAL WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z HREF
90 TO 99 PERCENTILE PROBABILITIES OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH 7
AM MONDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT BUT REMAIN HIGH ELSEWHERE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AS A
RESULT AND WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON
MONDAY EXCEPT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH. IN ADDITION...WPC
HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PAST
TWO DAYS WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A
DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAUSE RAIN CHANCES
TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON MONDAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON, THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE
HILL COUNTRY (40-50%) WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCES FOR THE CONCHO VALLEY
(20-30%) AND THE BIG COUNTRY (<20%). UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ENHANCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE
MORNING. DESI PROBABILITIES SHOW MEDIUM CHANCES OF 1-2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN THIS AREA DURING THE DAY, SO THE FLOOD WATCH CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
MONDAY. OTHERWISE, GIVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN,
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD STAY IN THE MID 80S, EXCEPT FOR THE BIG
COUNTRY WHICH WILL HAVE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER AND COULD REACH INTO
THE LOW 90S.
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AS
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, MODELS SHOW
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
DIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. ANOTHER SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DROP INTO TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST BY
FRIDAY. HERE, GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE AS TO WHAT COULD RESULT BASED ON
VARYING FACTORS, INCLUDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL GO. THE GFS
SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF YET-TO-DEVELOP TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING IN
FROM THE EAST PACIFIC AND INTRODUCING RAIN CHANCES INTO WEST TEXAS.
THE EUROPEAN SHOWS THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD AWAY
FROM NORTH AMERICA, RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW, RAIN CHANCES WERE KEPT AROUND 20% FOR SATURDAY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WERE
NEAR 300FT AT KBBD TO NEAR 10000FT AT KSJT. VISIBILITES WERE NEAR
1/2SM WITH RAIN AT KBBD TO 3SM WITH RAIN AND MIST AT KBWD. EXPECT
MVFR TO VFR CONDITION IN GENERAL TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT LOCAL
AERODROMES. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 70 91 67 93 / 10 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 68 88 64 91 / 40 20 0 0
JUNCTION 68 87 64 92 / 50 50 10 10
BROWNWOOD 69 89 65 92 / 20 20 0 10
SWEETWATER 70 91 68 94 / 20 10 0 0
OZONA 68 86 64 91 / 60 50 10 10
BRADY 69 86 66 89 / 30 30 0 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-
HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-IRION-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-STERLING-SUTTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...61
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