730
FXUS64 KSJT 312012
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
312 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE CONCHO VALLEY, THE HEARTLAND,
THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE
BIG COUNTRY THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.
- POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
- MARGINAL RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
...SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE BIG COUNTRY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY AND
THE HEARTLAND. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP, THE AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
EVERYWHERE BUT THE BIG COUNTRY AS THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN GENERAL WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z HREF
90 TO 99 PERCENTILE PROBABILITIES OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH 7
AM MONDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT BUT REMAIN HIGH ELSEWHERE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AS A
RESULT AND WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON
MONDAY EXCEPT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH. IN ADDITION...WPC
HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA TUESDAY-
FRIDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, AND
OUR AREA WILL HAVE FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ALOFT. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT FOR OUR
AREA, WITH DAILY HIGHS RANGING IN THE 90S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK
TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS, WHEN HIGHS MAY REACH THE UPPER 90S IN
PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHWESTERN CONCHO VALLEY.
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO OUR
AREA FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE INDICATED THAT
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
(TROPICAL SYSTEM NOT YET DEVELOPED) MAY GET INCORPORATED INTO
THIS TROUGH. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
1.8 TO 2 INCHES, THIS WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS IS STILL 6-7 DAYS OUT, HOWEVER, AND FOR MULTIPLE
REASONS THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WERE
NEAR 300FT AT KBBD TO NEAR 10000FT AT KSJT. VISIBILITES WERE NEAR
1/2SM WITH RAIN AT KBBD TO 3SM WITH RAIN AND MIST AT KBWD. EXPECT
MVFR TO VFR CONDITION IN GENERAL TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT LOCAL
AERODROMES. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 70 91 67 93 / 10 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 68 88 64 91 / 40 20 0 0
JUNCTION 68 87 64 92 / 50 50 10 10
BROWNWOOD 69 89 65 92 / 20 20 0 10
SWEETWATER 70 91 68 94 / 20 10 0 0
OZONA 68 86 64 91 / 60 50 10 10
BRADY 69 86 66 89 / 30 30 0 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CALLAHAN-FISHER-
HASKELL-JONES-NOLAN-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-IRION-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-STERLING-SUTTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...61
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