392
FXUS64 KSJT 010552
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1252 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE CONCHO VALLEY, THE HEARTLAND,
THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
THROUGH 7AM THIS MORNING.
- POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
ALONG AND NEAR A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
- MARGINAL RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
...SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT...
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE BIG COUNTRY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY AND
THE HEARTLAND. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP, THE AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
EVERYWHERE BUT THE BIG COUNTRY AS THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD BE CONFINED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT.
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN GENERAL WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY THE 12Z HREF
90 TO 99 PERCENTILE PROBABILITIES OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH 7
AM MONDAY. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT BUT REMAIN HIGH ELSEWHERE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AS A
RESULT AND WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON
MONDAY EXCEPT ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH. IN ADDITION...WPC
HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME
AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS (LOW 90S) FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, STRONGER THERMAL RIDGING LOOKS TO SET UP
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
BOTH DAYS.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND STALL.
GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL GO AND THE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES. THE GFS NO LONGER SHOWS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING IN FROM THE EAST PACIFIC BUT STILL
REMAINS MUCH WETTER THAN THE EUROPEAN, WHICH DOESN'T BRING THE FRONT
AS FAR INTO TEXAS. LREF PROBABILITIES SHOW LOW (<25%) CHANCES OF
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR
NOW, RAIN CHANCES WERE KEPT TO AROUND 20% FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER THROUGH THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT,
MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 09Z, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING OCCURS AFTER STORMS DISSIPATE. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 18Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 91 67 93 65 / 10 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 89 65 93 64 / 20 0 0 0
JUNCTION 89 63 93 65 / 40 0 10 0
BROWNWOOD 89 65 92 64 / 30 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 92 67 94 64 / 10 0 0 0
OZONA 87 65 92 65 / 30 0 10 0
BRADY 87 65 90 64 / 30 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-
CONCHO-CROCKETT-IRION-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-RUNNELS-SAN
SABA-SCHLEICHER-STERLING-SUTTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...SK
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