042
FXUS64 KSJT 010610
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
110 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE CONCHO VALLEY, THE HEARTLAND,
THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING.
- POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY ON
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY, HEARTLAND, AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT TO MARGINAL RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-20 TODAY, WITH THE SLIGHT RISK MAIN ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. SOME STORMS TO DO DEVELOP TODAY, WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING MAINLY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY. THEREFOR THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
AFFECT SOUTH OF THE BIG COUNTRY THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME
AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS (LOW 90S) FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, STRONGER THERMAL RIDGING LOOKS TO SET UP
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
BOTH DAYS.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND STALL.
GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL GO AND THE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES. THE GFS NO LONGER SHOWS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING IN FROM THE EAST PACIFIC BUT STILL
REMAINS MUCH WETTER THAN THE EUROPEAN, WHICH DOESN'T BRING THE FRONT
AS FAR INTO TEXAS. LREF PROBABILITIES SHOW LOW (<25%) CHANCES OF
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR
NOW, RAIN CHANCES WERE KEPT TO AROUND 20% FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE DIMINISHED, AND GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT, THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT INCREASING VFR CONDITIONS AS WE GET LATER IN THE DAY, AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PACKAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 91 67 93 65 / 10 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 89 65 93 64 / 20 0 0 0
JUNCTION 89 63 93 65 / 40 0 10 0
BROWNWOOD 89 65 92 64 / 30 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 92 67 94 64 / 10 0 0 0
OZONA 87 65 92 65 / 30 0 10 0
BRADY 87 65 90 64 / 30 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BROWN-COKE-COLEMAN-
CONCHO-CROCKETT-IRION-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-RUNNELS-SAN
SABA-SCHLEICHER-STERLING-SUTTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...TP
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