021
FXUS64 KSJT 011923
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
223 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE,
A DRY FORECAST WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE BIG COUNTRY TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT THE
FRONT WILL BE DRY, WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT TONIGHT,
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SUN SEP 1 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME
AS A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS (LOW 90S) FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, STRONGER THERMAL RIDGING LOOKS TO SET UP
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S
BOTH DAYS.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT
LOOKS TO DROP INTO TEXAS FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND STALL.
GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT
WILL GO AND THE OVERALL RAIN CHANCES. THE GFS NO LONGER SHOWS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING IN FROM THE EAST PACIFIC BUT STILL
REMAINS MUCH WETTER THAN THE EUROPEAN, WHICH DOESN'T BRING THE FRONT
AS FAR INTO TEXAS. LREF PROBABILITIES SHOW LOW (<25%) CHANCES OF
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN 24 HOURS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR
NOW, RAIN CHANCES WERE KEPT TO AROUND 20% FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH NEAR-SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
MAINLY A VFR FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING PRIMARILY AT KJCT AND
KBBD, WITH SOME REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY THROUGH MID MORNING.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 67 93 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 64 92 65 95 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 64 92 66 96 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 65 92 65 94 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 67 94 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 64 91 67 94 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 66 89 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...24
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