945
FXUS64 KSJT 021145
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
645 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STARTING
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND STARTING A BRIEF WARMING TREND. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE
FRONT WILL BE DRY, WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON SEP 2 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME.
WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS (LOW 90S) FOR
WEDNESDAY, STRONGER THERMAL RIDGING LOOKS TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
BOTH DAYS.
OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE WEEKEND WHERE A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN
STORE. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO
THE EASTERN US AND PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY. THIS SETUP WOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND,
BUT AS ALWAYS, THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING TEXAS FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE LEVEL OF
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE TOYED WITH BRINGING A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM, FROM NEAR
THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THE EUROPEAN
IS NOW IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS OF BRINGING THIS DISTURBANCE
INTO THE REGION, BUT AS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, RAIN
CHANCES FROM THE GFS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE EUROPEAN. SO WE TURN
TO THE ENSEMBLES WHICH SHOW PWATS OF 1-1.5 INCHES, INDICATIVE OF A
FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS. WHILE THIS SETUP HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT. FOR NOW, TRENDS
AND PROBABILITIES WILL BE MONITORED FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE REMAINS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
AND PATCHY FOG RETURNING EARLY THIS MORNING TO KJCT, KBBD, AND
KSOA, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES THROUGH 15Z THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MVFR TEMPO GROUPS WERE REMOVED FROM THIS TAF
PACKAGE GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 93 66 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 92 66 94 66 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 93 65 94 63 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 92 65 94 64 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 93 66 96 71 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 93 66 93 65 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 89 66 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...TP
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