561
FXUS64 KSJT 021803
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
103 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY STRONGER
BEHIND THIS RATHER WEAK BOUNDARY. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
KANSAS WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IN OUR AREA
TONIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WITH
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 850MB TEMPERATURES,
HIGHS WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY, AND IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT MON SEP 2 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE MAIN STORY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME.
WHILE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS (LOW 90S) FOR
WEDNESDAY, STRONGER THERMAL RIDGING LOOKS TO SET UP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
BOTH DAYS.
OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS TO THE WEEKEND WHERE A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN
STORE. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO
THE EASTERN US AND PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS ON
SATURDAY. THIS SETUP WOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND,
BUT AS ALWAYS, THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING TEXAS FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE LEVEL OF
DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE TOYED WITH BRINGING A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM, FROM NEAR
THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THE EUROPEAN
IS NOW IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS OF BRINGING THIS DISTURBANCE
INTO THE REGION, BUT AS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, RAIN
CHANCES FROM THE GFS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE EUROPEAN. SO WE TURN
TO THE ENSEMBLES WHICH SHOW PWATS OF 1-1.5 INCHES, INDICATIVE OF A
FAIRLY MOIST AIRMASS. WHILE THIS SETUP HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT. FOR NOW, TRENDS
AND PROBABILITIES WILL BE MONITORED FOR BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 6-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT, AND REMAIN
LIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 65 94 69 101 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 66 94 65 98 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 66 94 63 99 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 65 93 64 99 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 64 95 71 101 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 67 93 65 97 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 67 92 64 96 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...19
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