368
FXUS64 KSJT 110538
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1238 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY, WITH DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20, WITH LOWER 60S TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT A DEGREE HIGHER, IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S,
WITH THE WARMER READINGS IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY.
PATCHY MORNING STRATUS POSSIBLE IN MORNING ALONG I-10 FROM OZONA
TO SONORA TO JUNCTION, BUT OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
LONGER TERM FORECAST HAS CHANGED A LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY,
ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST A
LITTLE AS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN US. BY
SUNDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS GETS SQUEEZED SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH TO SETTLE INTO THE
ROCKIES, WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS
NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA, SKIRTING THE
FRINGES OF THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY.
THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA FOR THE START AND MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THE RIDGE MAY NOT REBUILD INTO THE AREA VERY
QUICKLY. MODELS HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCE AT THIS RANGE BUT WITHOUT
THE RIDGE BLOCKING EVERYTHING, SOME CHANCE OF AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SEEMS REASONABLE. MODEL BLENDS
ARE BRINGING IN SOME SMALL POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
WILL LEAVE THOSE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
SAME BASIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES DOES REMAIN HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS
EACH DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70. NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS, SO SMALL DEVIATIONS IN CLOUD OVER
OR WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR ANY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM
DAY TO DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
PATCHY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF
OUR AREA IN THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. CARRYING MVFR
CEILING AT KSOA, AND HAVE A TEMPO MVFR CEILING AT KJCT. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE INITIALLY SOMEWHAT GUSTY EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET. ON THURSDAY, SOUTH WINDS IN
THE MORNING WILL INCREASE TO TO 8-11 KNOTS BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 96 69 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 94 66 92 66 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 93 66 92 64 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 94 67 94 66 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 96 68 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 91 66 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 91 67 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...19
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page