645
FXUS64 KSJT 111128
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
628 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER TEXAS TODAY, RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SOME MORNING LOW CLOUDS MAY AFFECT AREAS ALONG I-10 THIS MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH A FEW
GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S
OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS, TO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
LONGER TERM FORECAST HAS CHANGED A LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY,
ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST A
LITTLE AS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN US. BY
SUNDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS GETS SQUEEZED SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH TO SETTLE INTO THE
ROCKIES, WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS
NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA, SKIRTING THE
FRINGES OF THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY.
THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA FOR THE START AND MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THE RIDGE MAY NOT REBUILD INTO THE AREA VERY
QUICKLY. MODELS HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCE AT THIS RANGE BUT WITHOUT
THE RIDGE BLOCKING EVERYTHING, SOME CHANCE OF AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SEEMS REASONABLE. MODEL BLENDS
ARE BRINGING IN SOME SMALL POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
WILL LEAVE THOSE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
SAME BASIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES DOES REMAIN HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS
EACH DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70. NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS, SO SMALL DEVIATIONS IN CLOUD OVER
OR WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR ANY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM
DAY TO DAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME STRATUS IS
POSSIBLE AT KJCT AND KSOA THROUGH MID MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FOR ANY CEILINGS, SO WILL ONLY CARRY A SCATTERED LOW CLOUD
GROUP FOR NOW AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, PRIMARILY AT KSJT AND
KABI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 96 69 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 94 66 92 66 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 93 66 92 64 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 94 67 94 66 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 96 68 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 91 66 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 91 67 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...24
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