750
FXUS64 KSJT 111744
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1244 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
THE WARM SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS TODAY, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND WARM, WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON FRIDAY, AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH, WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
LONGER TERM FORECAST HAS CHANGED A LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY,
ALTHOUGH STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST A
LITTLE AS A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN US. BY
SUNDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS GETS SQUEEZED SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ALLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH TO SETTLE INTO THE
ROCKIES, WITH STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS WEST TEXAS.
MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS
NORTH INTO THE PANHANDLE AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA, SKIRTING THE
FRINGES OF THE WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY AND WESTERN BIG COUNTRY.
THIS TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA FOR THE START AND MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THE RIDGE MAY NOT REBUILD INTO THE AREA VERY
QUICKLY. MODELS HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCE AT THIS RANGE BUT WITHOUT
THE RIDGE BLOCKING EVERYTHING, SOME CHANCE OF AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SEEMS REASONABLE. MODEL BLENDS
ARE BRINGING IN SOME SMALL POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
WILL LEAVE THOSE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
SAME BASIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES DOES REMAIN HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS
EACH DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70. NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS, SO SMALL DEVIATIONS IN CLOUD OVER
OR WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR ANY CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FROM
DAY TO DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 15
KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS FRIDAY MORNING AGAIN AT SOUTHERN SITES, SO HAVE
INTRODUCED A SHORT TEMPO AT KJCT AND KSOA FOR THAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 69 95 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 66 93 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 65 92 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 67 94 66 93 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 68 95 69 94 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 66 90 66 89 / 0 0 0 10
BRADY 67 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20
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