654
FXUS64 KSJT 121127
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
627 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE WEST OF A SWEETWATER TO
STERLING CITY LINE THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, CONTINUED DRY AND
WARM.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A QUIET PATTERN WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A CARBON-COPY FORECAST IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MODELS
SHOW 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 20-22 DEG C DURING THE DAY, WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. ONCE AGAIN, THE
WARMEST HIGHS WILL BE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WHERE A THERMAL RIDGE
REMAINS THE STRONGEST. AFTERNOON DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHEAST, JUST LIKE YESTERDAY, WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 20. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TO THE EAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS PUTS WESTERN
TEXAS INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HELPS PULLS BETTER UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY, ACTUALLY HAVE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER WEST TEXAS THAN OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH
THE BOTTOM SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. CAMS ARE STARTING TO REACH OUT THAT FAR, WITH THE
HRRR AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAMNEST SHOWING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS WITH A LITTLE OF IT REACHING
INTO THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY BEFORE THE
CONVECTION DISSIPATES. WILL CARRY SOME SMALL POPS WEST OF A
SWEETWATER TO STERLING CITY LINE FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH AGAIN THIS MEANS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY.
AS WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY, THERE'S LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS SO
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH EITHER. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SCATTERED MVFR NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN
15-17Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS NEAR
20KT COULD OCCUR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 95 70 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 93 66 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 92 63 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 94 66 93 67 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 94 69 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 90 67 89 67 / 0 0 10 0
BRADY 91 65 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...SK
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