577
FXUS64 KSJT 140521
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1221 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY ALONG AND WEST OF A THROCKMORTON TO SONORA LINE.
- OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARM THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LOW RESULTING IN LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING
INTO WEST TEXAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS. MOST OF THE CAMS WEAKEN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT TRIES TO
MOVE INTO OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AS WELL, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS, BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID TO LATE EVENING. KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE LOCATIONS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
HOT AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, WEAKENING THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST
ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
REMAINING DRY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
BY 17Z, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20KT AT TIMES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z WEST OF A LINE FROM THROCKMORTON TO
SONORA, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 92 71 93 70 / 20 10 20 0
SAN ANGELO 89 68 91 66 / 20 10 10 0
JUNCTION 91 66 91 64 / 10 10 10 0
BROWNWOOD 92 68 92 67 / 0 0 10 0
SWEETWATER 90 69 91 69 / 40 20 20 0
OZONA 86 68 89 65 / 30 10 10 0
BRADY 89 68 89 66 / 10 0 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....DANIELS
AVIATION...SK
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