048
FXUS64 KSJT 051106 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
606 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY.
- LOW POTENTIAL (<30%) FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA, AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OUR WEATHER TODAY WILL BE
PRETTY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. EXPECTING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE
AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE BY MID-MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL HAVE A DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WITH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN IN OUR AREA AND
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT US IN
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF OUR
AREA DURING THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO OKLAHOMA AND POTENTIALLY NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT, BUT IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR
OUR AREA EITHER WAY. THE WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT COULD
HOWEVER BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE, BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE, AND WEAK FRONT WILL
BRING A LOW POTENTIAL (<30%) FOR SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE RAIN THIS WEEK.
RIGHT NOW, THE MOST LIKELY RAIN AMOUNTS (25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE)
ARE BETWEEN 0 AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
PATCHY LOW CLOUD COVER IS DEVELOPING NORTH TOWARD I-10 EARLY THIS
MORNING. CARRYING A SCATTERED LOW CLOUD GROUP 12Z-15Z IN THE
KSOA/KJCT TAFS ALONG WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS. OTHER THAN THIS
EXCEPTION, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE,
WINDS OVERNIGHT HAVE STAYED HIGHER AT KABI/KSJT. PER OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS, HAVE INITIALIZED THE 12Z TAF AT KSJT WITH TEMPORARY GUSTS
NEAR 18 KNOTS. OTHERWISE, SOUTH OUR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY MID-MORNING AT ALL OF OUR TAF SITES AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS (11-14 KNOTS) ARE
EXPECTED AT KABI, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. EXPECT GUSTS TO BE
NEAR 18 KNOTS AT KSJT AND 12-14 KNOTS AT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID-TO-LATE
AFTERNOON, AND WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 90 66 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 89 62 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 90 61 90 65 / 0 0 10 0
BROWNWOOD 89 62 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 90 65 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 88 61 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 87 63 88 65 / 0 0 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...19
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