957
FXUS64 KSJT 051724
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1224 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY.
- LOW POTENTIAL (<30%) FOR SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA, AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OUR WEATHER TODAY WILL BE
PRETTY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. EXPECTING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE
AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE BY MID-MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL HAVE A DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WITH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN IN OUR AREA AND
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN CONUS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT US IN
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF OUR
AREA DURING THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO OKLAHOMA AND POTENTIALLY NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT, BUT IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES FOR
OUR AREA EITHER WAY. THE WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT COULD
HOWEVER BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THE
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE, BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE, AND WEAK FRONT WILL
BRING A LOW POTENTIAL (<30%) FOR SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL NOT SEE RAIN THIS WEEK.
RIGHT NOW, THE MOST LIKELY RAIN AMOUNTS (25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE)
ARE BETWEEN 0 AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH WIND GUSTS 17-20 KTS AT KABI AND KSJT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE WINDS WEAKEN MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR AT KSOA AND
KJCT, BUT LEFT OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 90 65 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 89 62 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 89 62 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 89 61 90 63 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 90 65 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 87 62 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 87 63 87 64 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...04
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