250
FXUS64 KSJT 051744
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY.
- LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS IN STORE FOR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA, AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. OUR WEATHER TODAY WILL BE
PRETTY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. EXPECTING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE
AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE BY MID-MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE AREA WILL HAVE A DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WITH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN IN OUR AREA AND
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES
ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION (DUE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS), AND POTENTIALLY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH, WILL BRING LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS (BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR) TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TUESDAY, AND
MID 80S WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE AROUND
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER OUR AREA, RESULTING IN
WARMER AND DRY WEATHER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
THURSDAY, AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE,
A DRIER ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER EARLY MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY MORNING, AND THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH WIND GUSTS 17-20 KTS AT KABI AND KSJT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE WINDS WEAKEN MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR AT KSOA AND
KJCT, BUT LEFT OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 65 91 66 89 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 62 89 63 89 / 0 0 0 10
JUNCTION 62 89 62 89 / 0 0 0 20
BROWNWOOD 61 89 62 88 / 0 0 0 10
SWEETWATER 65 90 65 88 / 0 0 0 10
OZONA 61 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 10
BRADY 63 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....SJH
AVIATION...04
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