583
FXUS64 KSJT 060522 AAB
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1222 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY.
- LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW/UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S (WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE BIG
COUNTRY). MAIN CHANGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN A LEE TROUGH TO THE
WEST AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
MAINLY PREVAIL AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAIN BE IN THE
LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES
ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION (DUE TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS), AND POTENTIALLY A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH, WILL BRING LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS (BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR) TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TUESDAY, AND
MID 80S WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE AROUND
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER OUR AREA, RESULTING IN
WARMER AND DRY WEATHER. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
THURSDAY, AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE,
A DRIER ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER EARLY MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY MORNING, AND THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAY HAVE
SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME IN SOME
OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AND THIS WOULD BRING A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS. CARRYING JUST A SCATTERED MENTION AT KJCT/KSOA FOR
NOW, AND WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS AND UPDATE IF
NEEDED. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT, AND FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT, BUT ITS ARRIVAL AT KABI WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFTER
THIS TAF PACKAGE (NEAR 12Z TUESDAY).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 66 89 64 87 / 0 10 0 10
SAN ANGELO 63 88 63 85 / 0 10 10 10
JUNCTION 63 88 64 86 / 0 20 10 20
BROWNWOOD 63 89 62 86 / 0 10 0 10
SWEETWATER 66 88 63 85 / 0 10 0 10
OZONA 64 87 64 84 / 0 20 10 20
BRADY 65 86 64 84 / 0 10 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....SJH
AVIATION...19
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