018
FXUS64 KSJT 060558
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1258 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY.
- LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW/UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S (WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE BIG
COUNTRY). MAIN CHANGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN A LEE TROUGH TO THE
WEST AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
MAINLY PREVAIL AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAIN BE IN THE
LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEK REMAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE WEAKENED UPPER HIGH, WE COULD SEE A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT
INTO OUR AREA, TURNING OUR WINDS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WIND
SHIFT, INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AND WEAKENED RIDGE WILL DROP OUR HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW
(<20%) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY STAYING BELOW A
QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR THE AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, LOWERING
OUR RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S AGAIN
BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAY HAVE
SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME IN SOME
OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AND THIS WOULD BRING A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS. CARRYING JUST A SCATTERED MENTION AT KJCT/KSOA FOR
NOW, AND WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS AND UPDATE IF
NEEDED. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT, AND FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT, BUT ITS ARRIVAL AT KABI WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFTER
THIS TAF PACKAGE (NEAR 12Z TUESDAY).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 91 66 89 64 / 0 0 10 0
SAN ANGELO 89 63 88 63 / 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 89 63 88 64 / 0 0 20 10
BROWNWOOD 90 63 89 62 / 0 0 10 0
SWEETWATER 91 66 88 63 / 0 0 10 0
OZONA 88 64 87 64 / 0 0 20 10
BRADY 87 65 86 64 / 0 0 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...19
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