712
FXUS64 KSJT 060622
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
122 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY.
- LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
OUR AREA WILL HAVE ONE MORE QUIET DAY TODAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY, AND HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WITH A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY EXTENDS FROM
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA PROVINCES IN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
CALIFORNIA, AND OUR AREA IS UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR I-20 BY 7 AM TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
THE BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. FOR OUR AREA, RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT LOOK TOO NEGLIGIBLE
TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S, WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEK REMAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE WEAKENED UPPER HIGH, WE COULD SEE A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT
INTO OUR AREA, TURNING OUR WINDS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WIND
SHIFT, INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AND WEAKENED RIDGE WILL DROP OUR HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW
(<20%) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY STAYING BELOW A
QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR THE AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, LOWERING
OUR RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S AGAIN
BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAY HAVE
SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE 12Z-15Z TIME FRAME IN SOME
OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AND THIS WOULD BRING A POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS. CARRYING JUST A SCATTERED MENTION AT KJCT/KSOA FOR
NOW, AND WILL MONITOR SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS AND UPDATE IF
NEEDED. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT, AND FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE BIG COUNTRY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT, BUT ITS ARRIVAL AT KABI WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFTER
THIS TAF PACKAGE (NEAR 12Z TUESDAY).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 91 66 89 64 / 0 0 10 0
SAN ANGELO 89 63 88 63 / 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 89 63 88 64 / 0 0 20 10
BROWNWOOD 90 63 89 62 / 0 0 10 0
SWEETWATER 91 66 88 63 / 0 0 10 0
OZONA 88 64 87 64 / 0 0 20 10
BRADY 87 65 86 64 / 0 0 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...19
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