627
FXUS64 KSJT 061705
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1205 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY.
- LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
OUR AREA WILL HAVE ONE MORE QUIET DAY TODAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY, AND HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WITH A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY EXTENDS FROM
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA PROVINCES IN CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
CALIFORNIA, AND OUR AREA IS UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR I-20 BY 7 AM TUESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BE LIGHT
SOUTHEAST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
THE BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. FOR OUR AREA, RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT LOOK TOO NEGLIGIBLE
TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S, WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS WEEK REMAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE WEAKENED UPPER HIGH, WE COULD SEE A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE
FRONT COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE FRONT
INTO OUR AREA, TURNING OUR WINDS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE WIND
SHIFT, INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AND WEAKENED RIDGE WILL DROP OUR HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW
(<20%) FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY STAYING BELOW A
QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR THE AREAS THAT DO SEE RAIN. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, LOWERING
OUR RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S AGAIN
BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WINDS
BECOMING NORTH AT KABI AFTER 12Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 65 89 64 85 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 63 88 62 85 / 0 10 0 10
JUNCTION 63 87 63 86 / 0 20 10 10
BROWNWOOD 63 89 62 85 / 0 10 0 10
SWEETWATER 64 88 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 63 87 64 84 / 0 10 10 20
BRADY 65 86 64 83 / 0 10 0 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...DANIELS
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