289
FXUS64 KSJT 070533
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1233 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MEANWHILE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WERE LOWERED BY A
DEGREE OR TWO, WHERE AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED.
OVERALL, EXPECT HIGHS TO STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST BEHIND TUESDAY'S FRONT.
LOW RAIN CHANCES (<30%) WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA, NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR
THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH THE FRONT WILL EFFECT THE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
AND OTHERS INCREASING THEM TO NEAR 90. RIGHT NOW, WE HAVE HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THESE SOLUTIONS, BUT WE MAY NEED TO ADJUST HIGHS AS WE
GET CLOSER. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER-
WISE AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY IN THE EARLY TO MID-
MORNING HOURS, AND SHOULD REACH A SAN ANGELO TO RICHLAND SPRINGS
LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN DRIFT SOUTH TO THE
I-10 CORRIDOR BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH ITS ARRIVAL. WHILE THIS
COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS, LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PLACEMENT PRECLUDES A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL
BE REASSESSED GOING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 89 63 86 65 / 0 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 88 63 85 62 / 10 10 10 0
JUNCTION 88 64 86 62 / 20 20 20 0
BROWNWOOD 90 63 87 62 / 10 10 10 0
SWEETWATER 87 63 85 64 / 10 10 10 0
OZONA 87 65 84 64 / 20 20 30 0
BRADY 86 65 85 64 / 20 10 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...19
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