231
FXUS64 KSJT 070545
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1245 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY IN THE
EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS, AND SHOULD REACH A SAN ANGELO TO
RICHLAND SPRINGS LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN
DRIFT SOUTH TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
AREA GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN OZONA TO RICHLAND SPRINGS LINE WILL HAVE
A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND WITH ITS ARRIVAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
TODAY IN THE BIG COUNTRY, WHERE HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. FOR
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA (GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10). SOME CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT,
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST BEHIND TUESDAY'S FRONT.
LOW RAIN CHANCES (<30%) WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA, NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR
THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH THE FRONT WILL EFFECT THE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
AND OTHERS INCREASING THEM TO NEAR 90. RIGHT NOW, WE HAVE HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THESE SOLUTIONS, BUT WE MAY NEED TO ADJUST HIGHS AS WE
GET CLOSER. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER-
WISE AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY IN THE EARLY TO MID-
MORNING HOURS, AND SHOULD REACH A SAN ANGELO TO RICHLAND SPRINGS
LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN DRIFT SOUTH TO THE
I-10 CORRIDOR BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH ITS ARRIVAL. WHILE THIS
COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS, LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PLACEMENT PRECLUDES A MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL
BE REASSESSED GOING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 89 63 86 65 / 0 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 88 63 85 62 / 10 10 10 0
JUNCTION 88 64 86 62 / 20 20 20 0
BROWNWOOD 90 63 87 62 / 10 10 10 0
SWEETWATER 87 63 85 64 / 10 10 10 0
OZONA 87 65 84 64 / 20 20 30 0
BRADY 86 65 85 64 / 20 10 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...19
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