443
FXUS64 KSJT 071110 AAA
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
610 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY IN THE
EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS, AND SHOULD REACH A SAN ANGELO TO
RICHLAND SPRINGS LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN
DRIFT SOUTH TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
AREA GENERALLY SOUTH OF AN OZONA TO RICHLAND SPRINGS LINE WILL HAVE
A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND WITH ITS ARRIVAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
TODAY IN THE BIG COUNTRY, WHERE HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED. FOR
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
TODAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA (GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10). SOME CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT,
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST BEHIND TUESDAY'S FRONT.
LOW RAIN CHANCES (<30%) WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA, NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR
THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY, PROVIDING WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR THE
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH THE FRONT WILL EFFECT THE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
AND OTHERS INCREASING THEM TO NEAR 90. RIGHT NOW, WE HAVE HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THESE SOLUTIONS, BUT WE MAY NEED TO ADJUST HIGHS AS WE
GET CLOSER. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER-
WISE AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN VERY LOW FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND SHOULD REACH KABI
BETWEEN 12Z AND 13Z. THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH A SAN ANGELO TO
RICHLAND SPRINGS LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN
DRIFT SOUTH TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ITS PASSAGE WILL BE MORE DIFFUSE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WHERE
WINDS SHOULD ONLY INITIALLY SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEAST. THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WITH ITS ARRIVAL. SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH
IN OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
PLACEMENT PRECLUDES A MENTION IN OUR TAFS AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL
BE REASSESSED GOING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 87 63 86 65 / 0 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 89 63 85 62 / 10 10 10 0
JUNCTION 87 64 86 62 / 20 20 20 0
BROWNWOOD 89 63 87 62 / 10 10 10 0
SWEETWATER 86 63 85 64 / 10 10 10 0
OZONA 87 65 84 64 / 20 20 30 0
BRADY 87 65 85 64 / 20 10 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...19
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