303
FXUS64 KSJT 111713
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. USE
CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
BREEZY TODAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. THE WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZIER CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO BE IN PLACE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WILL BE
WEAKENING AS THE STRONG TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THIS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HAVE A COUPLE
OF EFFECTS. ONE IS LEE TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES, WHICH WILL TIGHTEN SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN OUR
AREA. THESE GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES,
MAY CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE BIG COUNTRY
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SECOND, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ADVECT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE DECAYING TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AT THAT TIME. WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTERACTING WITH THIS MOISTURE, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF OUR AREA, BUT
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AFTER THAT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA,
KEEPING US DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH CONTINUED WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 16Z SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 67 92 70 89 / 0 10 0 10
SAN ANGELO 63 90 65 89 / 0 10 0 0
JUNCTION 59 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 59 91 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 68 91 69 88 / 0 10 10 10
OZONA 62 87 64 86 / 0 10 0 0
BRADY 61 89 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24
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