265
FXUS64 KSJT 112324
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
624 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD WILL DRIFT A BIT EASTWARD TOMORROW, AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TOMORROW DUE TO THE INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS, COMBINED WITH CURED VEGETATION AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS, TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS TEXAS WILL BE NUDGED
SOUTHEASTWARD BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD ADVECT
PACIFIC-BASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA. THIS SHOULD SATURATE THE MID-LEVELS
OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY AND INCREASE THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES. HOWEVER, THE AXIS OF MOISTURE AND HIGHEST PWAT
VALUES WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN,
WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATER THAN 30%. NEVERTHELESS, WE'LL
CARRY SOME LOW (<15%) RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM STERLING CITY TO HASKELL.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
LOOKS TO BECOME REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM WESTERN CANADA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THIS FEATURE DIGGING A BIT THEN
PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND BRIEFLY ALLOWING THE UPPER-RIDGE TO BUILD
BACK IN ACROSS TEXAS. THE SUBSEQUENT LOSS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO FALL BACK TO AROUND 50 DEGREES WHICH WILL RESULT
IN DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS RETURNING. ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL
LIKELY START TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH, THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE BECAUSE THE AIRMASS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME. THE BLENDED
LONG-TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS NEXT TO NOTHING FOR RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS
WEEK, HOWEVER, A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINT AT SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN. FOR NOW, WE'LL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST UNLESS BETTER
SIGNALS FOR RAIN START TO DEVELOP.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY BY MIF- MORNING
SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 67 92 70 89 / 0 10 0 10
SAN ANGELO 63 90 65 89 / 0 10 0 0
JUNCTION 59 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 59 91 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 68 91 69 88 / 0 10 10 10
OZONA 62 87 64 86 / 0 10 0 0
BRADY 61 89 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...TP
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