912
FXUS64 KSJT 120702
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
202 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN OVERHEAD THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO A DISTURBANCE
PASSING ALOFT TO OUR NORTHWEST. WE WILL THEREFORE BE LEFT BETWEEN
THE TWO WITH MORE BENIGN WEATHER IN PLACE. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE
A INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
DISTURBANCE'S PROXIMITY TO OUR AREA. IN ADDITION, SOME BREEZIER
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LARGELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS, SOME MINOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE A WEST- SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS WELL NORTH
OF OUR AREA. A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
QPF OVER OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE
REMAIN DRY AND THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND THESE
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL 0Z. OTHERWISE, INCREASED
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 92 69 90 65 / 10 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 90 64 89 62 / 10 10 0 0
JUNCTION 90 61 89 60 / 0 10 0 0
BROWNWOOD 91 62 88 60 / 0 10 0 0
SWEETWATER 92 69 88 65 / 10 20 10 0
OZONA 87 64 87 62 / 10 10 0 0
BRADY 89 63 87 61 / 0 10 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...41
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