484
FXUS64 KSJT 121755
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1255 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN OVERHEAD THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO A DISTURBANCE
PASSING ALOFT TO OUR NORTHWEST. WE WILL THEREFORE BE LEFT BETWEEN
THE TWO WITH MORE BENIGN WEATHER IN PLACE. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE
A INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
DISTURBANCE'S PROXIMITY TO OUR AREA. IN ADDITION, SOME BREEZIER
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO LARGELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS, SOME MINOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WORK WEEK, WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
IS REPLACED BY A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING A
MORE A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA, WITH A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE
MODELS SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAIN DRY AND THUS WILL KEEP A
DRY FORECAST IN PLACE WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS PERSISTING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
BY EARLY EVENING. SOME STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY, AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AT KJCT AND KSOA THIS FORECAST CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 69 90 65 89 / 10 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 64 90 62 88 / 10 10 0 0
JUNCTION 61 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 62 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 69 88 64 88 / 10 20 0 0
OZONA 64 87 62 85 / 10 10 0 0
BRADY 62 87 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...41
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