993
FXUS64 KSJT 122311
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
611 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST TEXAS TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COVERAGE WILL
BE LIMITED HOWEVER, AND MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE BULK OF
ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE
AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S, WITH HIGHS TOMORROW
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THIS COMING WORK WEEK, WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON MONDAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND
IS REPLACED BY A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA, WITH A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS
SHOWING SOME PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER,
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAIN DRY AND THUS WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST IN PLACE WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS PERSISTING
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS LOOK TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 10-14Z FROM
THE SOUTH AND AFFECT TERMINALS SUCH AS SONORA, JUNCTION, AND
POSSIBLY BRADY. ANY MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 15Z WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 69 90 65 89 / 10 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 64 90 62 88 / 10 10 0 0
JUNCTION 61 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 62 88 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 69 88 64 88 / 10 20 0 0
OZONA 64 87 62 85 / 10 10 0 0
BRADY 62 87 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...SK
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