756
FXUS64 KSJT 141838
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
138 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK,
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
- LOW (<20%) CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE DOMINATE OUR WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 80S TO AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 55 TO 65.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
OFF THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY GETTING REPLACED BY UPPER
TROUGHING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE WEST COAST, WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN U.S.
AND CANADA. THIS WILL PUT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. THE
GFS IS SHOWING A POTENT SHORTWAVE EJECTING SOUTH FROM THE LOW
TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING US BETTER RAIN
CHANCES, HOWEVER THE EUROPEAN IS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO LATE SATURDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT, ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL PROVIDE LOW END RAIN
CHANCES (<20%) FOR SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT, DEW POINTS WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, LOWERING RH VALUES. WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH COMBINED WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 62 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 57 89 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 56 89 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 58 88 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 61 89 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 59 87 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 58 87 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...21
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