952
FXUS64 KSJT 150536
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1236 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
- A LOW TO MODERATE (20-40%) FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR
THIS WEEKEND.
- LOW (<20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND
MAINLY ACROSS A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
EXPECT WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO THE DOMINATE OUR WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
MID 80S TO AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE 55 TO 65.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS AND A THREAT OF
FIRE WEATHER THE BIGGEST CONCERNS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN US WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND ALLOW A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. MODELS LIKE THE GFS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT BUT MANY OTHER MODELS
ARE DRY. LATEST MODEL BLENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS AND ONLY KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POP NUMBERS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY
ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE POST FRONTAL DRY AIR MASS AND WEST
WINDS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S AND 60S ON FRIDAY DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20%.
MODELS ARE KEEPING WINDS AROUND THE 10 KNOT RANGE, BUT GIVEN THE
WEEKS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA, EVEN THIS MAY
BE PROBLEMATIC. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON
SUNDAY BUT WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRY AIR MASS
WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S. MAY
ACTUALLY SEE SOME 40S IN SOME OF THE USUAL COLD AIR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS. HIGHS BOUNCE RIGHT BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR
MONDAY, RUNNING NEARLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NEAR
KSOA AND KOZA AND WESTWARD TOMORROW (WEDNESDAY) MORNING. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN DURATION. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP BENIGN WEATHER IN PLACE WITH NO OTHER AVIATION CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 90 61 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 88 60 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 90 58 87 60 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 88 56 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 88 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 87 60 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 87 58 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...41
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