600
FXUS64 KSJT 160551
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1251 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
EAST TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES
TOWARDS CENTRAL CONUS TOMORROW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, TIGHTENING OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK HOT AND DRY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY
AND CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE
POP CHANCES, AND THIS IS REINFORCED BY THE CAMS THAT GO OUT THAT
FAR LARGELY COMING IN DRY AS WELL. WILL KEEP SOME VERY SMALL POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS COMING IN A LITTLE SLOWER THIS MORNING, WITH
THE FRONT TAKING UNTIL WELL INTO SATURDAY BEFORE IT CAN MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL SLOW THE RETURN OF VERY DRY POST FRONTAL AIR
MASS INTO THE AREA AND ACTUALLY HELP KEEP AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES UP A LITTLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM HOWEVER WITH
STRONGER DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST WINDS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS THE AREA. RECORD HIGH IN ABILENE FOR SATURDAY THE 18TH
IS ONLY 91 DEGREES (1921) AND THIS WILL BE IN CONSIDERABLE
JEOPARDY (STATISTICAL DATA SHOWS ROUGHLY A 75% CHANCE OF BREAKING
THE RECORD). SAN ANGELO'S RECORD HIGH IS 97 DEGREES AND HIGHS ARE
NOT LIKELY TO REACH THAT.
DELAY OF THE FRONT AND THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
VERY QUICKLY MEANS THAT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP FOR SUNDAY
MORNING IS NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE. FORECAST LOWS HAVE CLIMBED IN
THE MODEL BLENDS. AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, MONDAY
WILL BE WARMER AGAIN AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S AND WILL AGAIN NEED TO WATCH FOR RECORD HIGHS. THE
STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY WITH THE REST OF THE WEEK
LIKELY SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND 50S, OR SOMETHING FINALLY
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THEN SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS 16 TO
18 KTS LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 89 65 90 68 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANGELO 87 61 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 88 60 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 87 61 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 88 63 89 67 / 0 0 0 10
OZONA 84 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 86 61 87 65 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04
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