412
FXUS64 KSJT 161754
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1254 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS SITTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL STILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. HOWEVER, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PUSH
THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. THEN, A BROADER
TROUGH WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AS THIS
OCCURS, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK HOT AND DRY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY
AND CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE
POP CHANCES, AND THIS IS REINFORCED BY THE CAMS THAT GO OUT THAT
FAR LARGELY COMING IN DRY AS WELL. WILL KEEP SOME VERY SMALL POPS
ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS COMING IN A LITTLE SLOWER THIS MORNING, WITH
THE FRONT TAKING UNTIL WELL INTO SATURDAY BEFORE IT CAN MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL SLOW THE RETURN OF VERY DRY POST FRONTAL AIR
MASS INTO THE AREA AND ACTUALLY HELP KEEP AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES UP A LITTLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM HOWEVER WITH
STRONGER DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST WINDS, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS THE AREA. RECORD HIGH IN ABILENE FOR SATURDAY THE 18TH
IS ONLY 91 DEGREES (1921) AND THIS WILL BE IN CONSIDERABLE
JEOPARDY (STATISTICAL DATA SHOWS ROUGHLY A 75% CHANCE OF BREAKING
THE RECORD). SAN ANGELO'S RECORD HIGH IS 97 DEGREES AND HIGHS ARE
NOT LIKELY TO REACH THAT.
DELAY OF THE FRONT AND THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
VERY QUICKLY MEANS THAT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP FOR SUNDAY
MORNING IS NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE. FORECAST LOWS HAVE CLIMBED IN
THE MODEL BLENDS. AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, MONDAY
WILL BE WARMER AGAIN AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S AND WILL AGAIN NEED TO WATCH FOR RECORD HIGHS. THE
STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY WITH THE REST OF THE WEEK
LIKELY SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND 50S, OR SOMETHING FINALLY
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
PERSIST OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 64 90 68 91 / 0 10 10 20
SAN ANGELO 61 89 63 91 / 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 60 89 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 60 89 65 92 / 0 0 0 20
SWEETWATER 64 90 66 90 / 0 10 10 10
OZONA 62 86 63 90 / 0 0 10 0
BRADY 62 88 65 91 / 0 0 0 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...42
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