824
FXUS64 KSJT 161921
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
221 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS SITTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL STILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. HOWEVER, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF PUSH
THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. THEN, A BROADER
TROUGH WILL START TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AS THIS
OCCURS, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, BUT WE WILL SEE WEAK COLD FRONTS ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE THE SYSTEM, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THAT EXTEND THAT FAR OUT ARE
MIXED IN THEIR PREDICTIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN
OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION FOR WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM OZONA TO BROWNWOOD,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE BIG COUNTRY AREA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. AS WEST WINDS AND DRY AIR MOVE IN BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SATURDAY, DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S, WELL ABOVE OUR
AVERAGE HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES. ABILENE'S RECORD HIGH OF 91, SET
IN 1921, IS IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN, BUT SAN ANGELO'S
RECORD OF 97 SET IN 2016 SHOULD BE SAFE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING BRIEFLY
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS QUICKLY
TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY, AND A LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE EVEN WARMER THAN SATURDAY'S DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO 25+ DEGREES CELSIUS, SOME 4 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IMPLIES TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 90S MONDAY, BUT MODEL BLENDS KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
PERSIST OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 64 90 68 91 / 0 10 10 20
SAN ANGELO 61 89 63 91 / 0 0 10 10
JUNCTION 60 89 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 60 89 65 92 / 0 0 0 20
SWEETWATER 64 90 66 90 / 0 10 10 10
OZONA 62 86 63 90 / 0 0 10 0
BRADY 62 88 65 91 / 0 0 0 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...42
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