824
FXUS64 KSJT 170506
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1206 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND
CAMS ARE SCANT WITH ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TROUGH UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT (SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW). OTHERWISE,
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE BACK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH BECOMING GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, BUT WE WILL SEE WEAK COLD FRONTS ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL ACCOMPANY THE THE SYSTEM, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS THAT EXTEND THAT FAR OUT ARE
MIXED IN THEIR PREDICTIONS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN
OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION FOR WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM OZONA TO BROWNWOOD,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE BIG COUNTRY AREA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. AS WEST WINDS AND DRY AIR MOVE IN BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SATURDAY, DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S, WELL ABOVE OUR
AVERAGE HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES. ABILENE'S RECORD HIGH OF 91, SET
IN 1921, IS IN JEOPARDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN, BUT SAN ANGELO'S
RECORD OF 97 SET IN 2016 SHOULD BE SAFE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING BRIEFLY
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS QUICKLY
TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY, AND A LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE EVEN WARMER THAN SATURDAY'S DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO 25+ DEGREES CELSIUS, SOME 4 TO 5
DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IMPLIES TEMPERATURES
COULD WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 90S MONDAY, BUT MODEL BLENDS KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AT THIS POINT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT COOLING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AT KJCT AND KSOA BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 15Z. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS, BY MID
MORNING. EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 91 67 89 53 / 10 20 20 10
SAN ANGELO 90 64 89 52 / 10 20 20 10
JUNCTION 90 63 92 54 / 0 0 10 10
BROWNWOOD 89 64 90 53 / 0 10 20 10
SWEETWATER 90 65 88 55 / 10 30 20 0
OZONA 87 63 89 55 / 0 10 0 0
BRADY 87 65 90 56 / 0 10 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...DANIELS
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