247
FXUS64 KSJT 170546
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1246 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND NAM NEST HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON, EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL SEE ANY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON, SO
HAVE LEFT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE POSSIBILITY TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS, IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
CAMS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ON SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE AREA, PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STILL DOES NOT
LOOK WIDESPREAD OR LIKELY TO PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO ALLEVIATE
THE DROUGHT AT ALL, BUT WILL OPT TO GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE THE SMALL
POPS THE LATEST MODEL BLENDS ARE ADDING TO THE FORECAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF I-10.
AFTER BEING SLOWER YESTERDAY, THE MODELS ARE BACK TO FASTER AGAIN
WITH THE FRONT ON SATURDAY, LEADING TO A LITTLE STRONGER WEST AND
NORTHWEST WINDS AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO NEAR OR UNDER 20%. ANY RAIN
THAT FALLS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
EVAPORATE SO FAST THAT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON VEGETATION.
THE FASTER FRONT ALSO MEANS THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA A LITTLE SOONER SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OPTED TO UNDERCUT THE MODEL BLENDS A FEW
DEGREES WITH THIS IN MIND. SOME OF THE USUAL COLD AIR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MOST
AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST, SO SUNDAY LOOKS COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BUT A VERY QUICK TEMPERATURE REBOUND
FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA.
RECORD HIGHS ARE IN JEOPARDY IF THE BLENDS ARE CORRECT WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE (ABILENE: 94 DEGREES IN 2019, SAN
ANGELO 95 DEGREES IN 2023).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
STRATUS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY EARLY THIS
MORNING AND RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AT KJCT AND KSOA BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 15Z. SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS, BY MID
MORNING. EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 91 67 89 53 / 10 20 20 10
SAN ANGELO 90 64 89 52 / 10 20 20 10
JUNCTION 90 63 92 54 / 0 0 10 10
BROWNWOOD 89 64 90 53 / 0 10 20 10
SWEETWATER 90 65 88 55 / 10 30 20 0
OZONA 87 63 89 55 / 0 10 0 0
BRADY 87 65 90 56 / 0 10 10 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...DANIELS
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