238
FXUS64 KSJT 171829
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
129 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE BIG COUNTRY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP TO OUR WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HRRR AND NAM NEST HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON, EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE WILL SEE ANY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON, SO
HAVE LEFT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE POSSIBILITY TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS, IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
A ROLLER-COASTER TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS IN STORE FOR THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. STARTING WITH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TEXAS.
BEHIND THE FRONT A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AND
LOWER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. THESE COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
QUICKLY DEPART TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP FOR MONDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL (850-950MB LAYER) WINDS OF
30-40KTS LOOK TO DEVELOP FOR MUCH OF MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
WINDS CLOSE TO 20 MPH WHEN MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SOME GUSTS
NEAR 25 MPH COULD OCCUR. THE STRONG RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALSO ADVECT
A WARM AIRMASS BACK IN TO THE REGION AND PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER
SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THROUGH TEXAS. THIS ONE
WILL BE DRY THIS TIME AND SHOULD LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND
80 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO WARM BACK UP TO
THE UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO ROLL INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN A
DRY SLOT. FOR NOW, OVERALL CHANCES WERE KEPT TO LESS THAN 15% FOR
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR SATURDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB30 FOR
THUNDER FOR KABI AND KSJT. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE HILL COUNTRY IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CIGS AT KJCT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 67 89 54 79 / 20 50 0 0
SAN ANGELO 63 89 54 81 / 10 30 0 0
JUNCTION 63 92 55 84 / 0 10 10 0
BROWNWOOD 64 89 53 79 / 10 40 10 0
SWEETWATER 65 87 53 79 / 30 40 0 0
OZONA 63 89 55 82 / 10 10 0 0
BRADY 65 89 56 79 / 0 20 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...42
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