793
FXUS64 KSJT 140415
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1015 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES (30%-60%) RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHICH
IS 15 TO 20 DEGREE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE NOVEMBER 14TH DAILY
RECORD HIGH FOR ABILENE IS 84 AND 88 FOR SAN ANGELO. ABILENE HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF TYING OR BREAKING THIS RECORD, WHILE SAN ANGELO HAS A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF TYING OR BREAKING THE RECORD.
LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. STRATUS IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY FOR THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES EACH DAY WILL RANGE FROM
17 TO 20 DEG F, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH IS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR! FOR REFERENCE, THE DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND RANGE FROM 85-88, SO THESE ARE LIKELY TO
BE TIED OR BROKEN ON AT LEAST ONE OF THE DAYS. DESPITE THE INTRUSION
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING FROM WESTERLY WINDS. THE MEX GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A HIGH OF 92 IN SAN ANGELO, BUT FOR NOW, WE'LL STICK WITH THE
CONSENSUS OF 88.
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY TWO BACK-TO-BACK UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHS THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE US. THE FIRST,
WHICH MODELS SHOW PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY, SHOULD RESULT IN WARM AND CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE. IN IT'S WAKE, THE GFS SHOWS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
DROPPING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND STALLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY, WHILE THE EURO SHOWS IT STALLING IN KANSAS. REGARDLESS,
MODELS SHOW THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE TO BE A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH THAT COULD DIG THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN US BY WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE ADVECTED
INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. AS A
RESULT, MODELS SHOW AT LEAST LOW TO MEDIUM (30-60%) CHANCES OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AMOUNTS,
SEVERITY, AND TIMING COULD VARY QUITE A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
DEPENDING ON HOW THE TRACK OF THE MAIN TROUGH EVOLVES. FOR NOW,
THIS FEATURE WILL BE MONITORED FOR BETTER DETAILS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A HIGH CHANCE
FOR A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THE KSOA/KBBD TERMINALS
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG FOR A
FEW HOURS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY VFR FOR LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 58 88 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 56 87 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 55 85 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 54 85 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 57 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 53 82 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 56 85 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...21
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