566
FXUS64 KSJT 140701
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
101 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES (30%-60%) RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WHICH
IS 15 TO 20 DEGREE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. THE NOVEMBER 14TH DAILY
RECORD HIGH FOR ABILENE IS 84 AND 88 FOR SAN ANGELO. ABILENE HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF TYING OR BREAKING THIS RECORD, WHILE SAN ANGELO HAS A
LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF TYING OR BREAKING THE RECORD.
LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. STRATUS IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TO BE TIED OR BROKEN AT BOTH ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON MONDAY. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
KEEPING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. A SECOND POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD PUT WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS EASTWARD. NEVERTHELESS,
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO PAINT A POTENTIALLY WET SCENARIO FOR
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO STICK
WITH THE MODEL BLEND SHOWING WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A HIGH CHANCE
FOR A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT THE KSOA/KBBD TERMINALS
FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG FOR A
FEW HOURS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY VFR FOR LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 88 61 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 87 57 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 85 55 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 85 54 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 88 60 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 82 55 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 85 58 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...21
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