971
FXUS64 KSJT 141704
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1104 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES (30%-60%) RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, KEEPING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREE
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE
RECORD HIGH FOR ABILENE TODAY IS 84, AND 88 FOR SAN ANGELO, WHICH
BOTH HAVE A CHANCE OF BEING BROKEN TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 50S TO
LOW 60S. STRATUS IS AGAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL OVER TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RECORD HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TO BE TIED OR BROKEN AT BOTH ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON MONDAY. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
KEEPING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. A SECOND POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD PUT WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT EJECTS EASTWARD. NEVERTHELESS,
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO PAINT A POTENTIALLY WET SCENARIO FOR
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO STICK
WITH THE MODEL BLEND SHOWING WIDESPREAD 30-50 POPS FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL SITES LATE THIS MORNING.
STRATUS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 10Z AT THE SOUTHERN
SITES AND THEN APPROACH KSJT BY 12Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR
CEILINGS INITIALLY, WITH IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KSOA AND
KJCT AROUND 12Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS
EVENING, THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY.
WINDS OVERNIGHT AT KABI ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 88 61 88 59 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 87 57 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 85 55 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 87 55 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 88 60 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 83 55 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 85 58 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...DANIELS
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