636
FXUS64 KSJT 150655
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1255 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES (40%-70%) INCREASE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST AND AMPLIFY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, KEEPING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
IN THE LOWER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WHICH IS 10 TO 20 DEGREE ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE WILL SEE DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS BROKEN AGAIN TODAY FOR BOTH ABILENE AND SAN
ANGELO, WHERE THE RECORD HIGH FOR ABILENE TODAY IS 85, AND 86 FOR
SAN ANGELO. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING LOW STRATUS STARTING TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS THE I-10
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND SPREADING NORTHWARD PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL RETURN BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
EXPECT DRY AND HOT WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
DRY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE
OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER ON THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT LOOK FOR LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES OF RAIN(40%-70%)
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG MID LEVEL ASCENT, A PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND PW VALUES OF 1.25
TO 1.75 INCHES WILL RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE(10%-15%) OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AT THIS TIME. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
ALSO, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE(5-15%) OF A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS A STILL A FEW DAYS OUT SO CHECK FOR
FURTHER UPDATES. EXPECT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND A LOW CHANCE OF LOWER
90S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
INITIALLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT LOW CLOUD COVER THE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA BY 12Z-13Z SATURDAY. CEILINGS WILL BE
INITIALLY MVFR, BUT SHOULD DROP TO IFR AT KJCT AND KSOA AFTER
12Z. SOME OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP NORTH OVER
KSJT BETWEEN 13Z AND 16Z. THE LOW CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
BREAK UP IN THE MID-TO-LATE MORNING TIME FRAME, WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY AT
KABI TONIGHT, BUT WILL DECREASE AT OUR OTHER TAF SITES. ON
SATURDAY, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN BY 15Z AT KABI, AND BETWEEN 16Z AND 17Z AT OUR OTHER TAF
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 89 56 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 86 56 88 57 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 85 54 89 56 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 87 54 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 89 57 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 82 55 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 84 56 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...19
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