855
FXUS64 KSJT 160508 AAB
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1108 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE'S A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EAST OF A SWEETWATER TO SAN ANGELO
TO JUNCTION LINE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
WE ARE STARTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXCEED
THE CURRENT DAILY RECORD HIGHS, WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL, BUT WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BIG COUNTRY, SO HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER, IN THE LOW 80S. THE DAILY RECORD HIGH FOR NOVEMBER
16TH AT ABILENE IS 86 AND 87 AT SAN ANGELO.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
OUR VERY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORD VALUES THROUGH TUESDAY.
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL LIFT AHEAD OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY, PROVIDING ANOTHER
SOURCE OF LIFT FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE AXIS OF HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAS BEEN SHIFTING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MODEL RUNS, MOVING
BETWEEN OUR FORECAST AREA TO FURTHER EAST IN THE FORT WORTH/AUSTIN
AREA. THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED
OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH, A FASTER FRONT COULD PUSH THE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS TO OUR EAST. RIGHT NOW, WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE (40-70%) OF RECEIVING OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH THIS
EVENT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. WPC
CURRENTLY HAS AREAS EAST OF A SWEETWATER TO SAN ANGELO TO JUNCTION
LINE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CARRYING A WIND SHIFT
(TO NORTH-NORTHWEST) AT KABI AT 13Z, WITH WIND SPEEDS 4-7 KNOTS.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF I-20 AND POSSIBLY
ALONG A BROWNWOOD TO STERLING CITY LINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF OUR TAF SITES, EXPECT MOSTLY WEST WINDS AT 4-6
KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 54 82 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 56 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 53 90 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 53 86 55 88 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 54 81 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 55 87 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 56 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...19
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