339
FXUS64 KSJT 160546
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1146 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE'S A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EAST OF A SWEETWATER TO SAN ANGELO
TO JUNCTION LINE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
WE ARE STARTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, BUT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY EXCEED
THE CURRENT DAILY RECORD HIGHS, WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL, BUT WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BIG COUNTRY, SO HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER, IN THE LOW 80S. THE DAILY RECORD HIGH FOR NOVEMBER
16TH AT ABILENE IS 86 AND 87 AT SAN ANGELO.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
PARTLY DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FAST-MOVING SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A PERSISTENT 850MB THERMAL RIDGE. AS
A RESULT, MONDAY SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE-NORMAL, AND
POSSIBLY RECORD-BREAKING, HIGH TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE UPPER-
LEVEL JET STREAM STARTS TO SHIFT OVER WEST TEXAS AND COULD CARRY IN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE PACIFIC, WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES A BIT.
STARTING TUESDAY, A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN MEXICO LATE TUESDAY
AND PROGRESS EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GULF MOISTURE LOOKS TO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-80%)
CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES COULD OCCUR WITH A POTENTIAL LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN A PACIFIC-BASED
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS POINT,
PROBABILITIES FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS ARE 30-50%, BUT
GIVEN HOW MANY MOVING PARTS ARE AT PLAY WITH THIS EVENT, THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, TIMING, AND CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS COULD STILL CHANGE
QUITE A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR NOW, WPC IS CARRYING
A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHWEST AND WEST
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CARRYING A WIND SHIFT
(TO NORTH-NORTHWEST) AT KABI AT 13Z, WITH WIND SPEEDS 4-7 KNOTS.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF I-20 AND POSSIBLY
ALONG A BROWNWOOD TO STERLING CITY LINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF OUR TAF SITES, EXPECT MOSTLY WEST WINDS AT 4-6
KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. GOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 89 54 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 88 56 87 56 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 86 53 90 55 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 88 53 86 55 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 89 54 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 83 55 87 55 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 85 56 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...19
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