411
FXUS64 KSJT 021827
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1227 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
KNOCKING HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR THURSDAY.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY AFTER A COLD
MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP, KEEPING WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE, WITH HIGHER GUSTS,
OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY, SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MILD TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHS ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY WILL BE A BIT COOLER, IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S, WHERE AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-20 BY MAXIMUM HEATING TIME 2-3
PM. TEMPERATURES IN THE BIG COUNTRY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S WITH PERHAPS SOME 50S IN HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON. TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT, FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY AND EAST TO COLEMAN AND
BROWNWOOD, HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SKIES BECOME CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH
OUT OF NEW MEXICO. THERE IS WEAK LIFT OVER THE FRONT, MAINLY FROM
SONORA TO BROWNWOOD AND SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE A
FEW SPRINKLES NORTH IN THE BIG COUNTRY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES AND SLEET. KEPT MOST OF THE WINTERY
POTENTIAL IN HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES...AND THIS POTENTIAL
IS LOW AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WINTERY
ACCUMULATIONS IN HASKELL AND THROCKMORTON IN ANY CASE AND CERTAINLY
LITTLE OR NO IMPACT. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT THERE MAY BE PRECIPITATION
AT ALL, AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE SATURATED LEVEL IS AROUND -7 C AND WARM LEVEL IS
AROUND 2.5 C AT 700 MB, SO AT LEAST WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL,
WOULD BE HARD TO GET SNOW, THOUGH POSSIBLY A LITTLE SLEET, AS IT
FALLS INTO THE COLDER AIR NEAR SURFACE. NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED IN THE BIG COUNTRY OVER ALL. MEASURABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS,
LESS THAN 1/10 INCH, ARE MAINLY FROM SONORA TO BROWNWOOD AND
SOUTHWARD, THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME
LIFT OVER THE COLD FRONT.
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY WITH DRIER
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WINDS RETURN SOUTHWEST FRIDAY, THEN
WEST ON SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND RED
RIVER. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE, WITH A COLD
FRONT SUNDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN AROUND 5 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AT THE SOUTHERN 3
SITES, BUT REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AT KABI AND KSJT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 45 68 35 44 / 0 0 0 20
SAN ANGELO 41 71 35 46 / 0 0 0 20
JUNCTION 38 72 38 49 / 0 0 10 30
BROWNWOOD 35 69 35 45 / 0 0 10 30
SWEETWATER 44 65 34 44 / 0 0 0 10
OZONA 38 68 37 47 / 0 0 10 20
BRADY 40 70 38 44 / 0 0 10 30
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...DANIELS
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